Interaction Between Risk Factors, Coronary Calcium, and CCTA Plaque Characteristics in Patients Age 18-45.

AIMS: The atherosclerotic profile and advanced plaque subtype burden in symptomatic patients ≤45 years old have not been established. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and predictors of coronary artery calcium (CAC), plaque subtypes, and plaque burden by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in symptomatic young patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 907 symptomatic young patients (18-45 years) from Montefiore undergoing CCTA for chest pain evaluation. Prevalence and predictors of CAC, plaque subtypes, and burden were evaluated using semi-automated software. In the overall population (55% female and 44% Hispanic), 89% had CAC = 0. The likelihood of CAC or any plaque by CCTA increased with >3 risk factors (RF, OR 7.13 [2.14-23.7] and OR 10.26 [3.36-31.2], respectively). Any plaque by CCTA was present in 137 (15%); the strongest independent predictors were age ≥35 years (OR 3.62 [2.05-6.41]) and family history of premature CAD (FHx) (OR 2.76 [1.67-4.58]). Stenosis ≥50% was rare (1.8%), with 31% of those having CAC = 0. Significant non-calcified (NCP, 37.2%) and low-attenuation (LAP, 4.24%) plaque burdens were seen, even in those with non-obstructive stenosis. Among patients with CAC = 0, 5% had plaque, and the only predictor of exclusively non-calcified plaque was FHx (OR 2.29 [1.08-4.86]). CONCLUSIONS: In symptomatic young patients undergoing CCTA, the prevalence of CAC or any coronary atherosclerosis was not negligible, and the likelihood increased with RF burden. The presence of coronary stenosis ≥50% was rare and most often accompanied by CAC > 0 but there was a significant burden of NCP and LAP even within the non-obstructive group.

Subclinical Atherosclerosis to Guide Treatment in Dyslipidemia and Diabetes Mellitus.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus are two common conditions that are associated with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). In this review, we aimed to provide an in-depth and contemporary review of non-invasive approaches to assess subclinical atherosclerotic burden, predict cardiovascular risk, and guide appropriate treatment strategies. We focused this paper on two main imaging modalities: coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and computed tomography coronary angiography. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent longitudinal studies have provided stronger evidence on the relationship between increased CAC, thoracic aorta calcification, and risk of cardiovascular events among those with primary hypercholesterolemia, highlighting the beneficial role of statin therapy. Interestingly, resilient profiles of individuals not exhibiting atherosclerosis despite dyslipidemia have been described. Non-conventional markers of dyslipidemia have also been associated with increased subclinical atherosclerosis presence and burden, highlighting the contribution of apolipoprotein B-100 (apoB)-rich lipoprotein particles, such as remnant cholesterol and lipoprotein(a), to the residual risk of individuals on-target for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goals. Regarding type 2 diabetes mellitus, variability in atherosclerotic burden has also been found, and CAC testing has shown significant predictive value in stratifying cardiovascular risk. Non-invasive assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis can help reveal the continuum of ASCVD risk in those with dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus and can inform personalized strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention in the primary prevention setting.

Epidemiology and Prognostic Implications of Coronary Artery Calcium in Asymptomatic Individuals With Prediabetes: A Multicohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology and prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in individuals with prediabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled participants free of clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) from four prospective cohorts: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, Framingham Heart Study, and Jackson Heart Study. Two definitions were used for prediabetes: inclusive (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] ≥100 to <126 mg/dL and hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] ≥5.7% to <6.5%, if available, and no glucose-lowering medications) and restrictive (FPG ≥110 to <126 mg/dL and HbA1c ≥5.7% to <6.5%, if available, among participants not taking glucose-lowering medications). RESULTS: The study included 13,376 participants (mean age 58 years; 54% women; 57% White; 27% Black). The proportions with CAC ≥100 were 17%, 22%, and 37% in those with euglycemia, prediabetes, and diabetes, respectively. Over a median (25th-75th percentile) follow-up time of 14.6 (interquartile range 7.8-16.4) years, individuals with prediabetes and CAC ≥100 had a higher unadjusted 10-year incidence of ASCVD (13.4%) than the overall group of those with diabetes (10.6%). In adjusted analyses, using the inclusive definition of prediabetes, compared with euglycemia, the hazard ratios (HRs) for ASCVD were 0.79 (95% CI 0.62, 1.01) for prediabetes and CAC 0, 0.70 (0.54, 0.89) for prediabetes and CAC 1-99, 1.54 (1.27, 1.88) for prediabetes and CAC ≥100, and 1.64 (1.39, 1.93) for diabetes. Using the restrictive definition, the HR for ASCVD was 1.63 (1.29, 2.06) for prediabetes and CAC ≥100. CONCLUSIONS: CAC ≥100 is frequent among individuals with prediabetes and identifies a high ASCVD risk subgroup in which the adjusted ASCVD risk is similar to that in individuals with diabetes.

Association of cardiometabolic and vascular atherosclerosis phenotypes on non-contrast chest CT with incident heart failure in patients with severe hypercholesterolemia.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and heart failure (HF). OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether these cardiometabolic and atherosclerotic risk factors identified by non-contrast chest computed tomography (CT) are associated with HF hospitalizations in patients with LDL-C≥ 190 mg/dL. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients with LDL-C ≥190 mg/dL, aged ≥40 years without established ASCVD or HF, who had a non-contrast chest CT within 3 years of LDL-C measurement. Ordinal CAC, ordinal TAC, EAT, and NAFLD were measured. Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox regression models were built to ascertain the association with HF hospitalization. RESULTS: We included 762 patients with median age 60 (53-68) years, 68% (n=520) female, and median LDL-C level of 203 (194-216) mg/dL. Patients were followed for 4.7 (IQR 2.75-6.16) years, and 107 (14%) had a HF hospitalization. Overall, 355 (47%) patients had CAC=0, 210 (28%) had TAC=0, 116 (15%) had NAFLD, and median EAT was 79 mL (49-114). Moderate-Severe CAC (log-rank p<0.001) and TAC (log-rank p=0.006) groups were associated with increased HF hospitalizations. This association persisted when considering myocardial infarction (MI) as a competing risk. NAFLD and EAT volume were not associated with HF. CONCLUSIONS: In patients without established ASCVD and LDL-C≥190 mg/dL, CAC was independently associated with increased HF hospitalizations while TAC, NAFLD and EAT were not.

Closing the Last Mile Gap in Access to Multimodality Imaging in Rural Settings: Design of the Imaging Core of the Risk Underlying Rural Areas Longitudinal Study.

Achieving optimal cardiovascular health in rural populations can be challenging for several reasons including decreased access to care with limited availability of imaging modalities, specialist physicians, and other important health care team members. Therefore, innovative solutions are needed to optimize health care and address cardiovascular health disparities in rural areas. Mobile examination units can bring imaging technology to underserved or remote communities with limited access to health care services. Mobile examination units can be equipped with a wide array of assessment tools and multiple imaging modalities such as computed tomography scanning and echocardiography. The detailed structural assessment of cardiovascular and lung pathology, as well as the detection of extracardiac pathology afforded by computed tomography imaging combined with the functional and hemodynamic assessments acquired by echocardiography, yield deep phenotyping of heart and lung disease for populations historically underrepresented in epidemiological studies. Moreover, by bringing the mobile examination unit to local communities, innovative approaches are now possible including engagement with local professionals to perform these imaging assessments, thereby augmenting local expertise and experience. However, several challenges exist before mobile examination unit-based examinations can be effectively integrated into the rural health care setting including standardizing acquisition protocols, maintaining consistent image quality, and addressing ethical and privacy considerations. Herein, we discuss the potential importance of cardiac multimodality imaging to improve cardiovascular health in rural regions, outline the emerging experience in this field, highlight important current challenges, and offer solutions based on our experience in the RURAL (Risk Underlying Rural Areas Longitudinal) cohort study.

Association of cardiovascular risk profile with premature all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in US adults: findings from a national study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between cardiovascular risk factor (CRF) profile and premature all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among US adults (age < 65). METHODS: This study used data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2006 to 2014, linked to the National Death Index for non-elderly adults aged < 65 years. A composite CRF score (range = 0-6) was calculated, based on the presence or absence of six established cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, obesity, and insufficient physical activity. CRF profile was defined as "Poor" (≥ 3 risk factors), "Average" (1-2), or "Optimal" (0 risk factors). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) were reported across CRF profile categories, separately for all-cause and CVD mortality. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the association between CRF profile and all-cause and CVD mortality. RESULTS: Among 195,901 non-elderly individuals (mean age: 40.4 ± 13.0, 50% females and 70% Non-Hispanic (NH) White adults), 24.8% had optimal, 58.9% average, and 16.2% poor CRF profiles, respectively. Participants with poor CRF profile were more likely to be NH Black, have lower educational attainment and lower income compared to those with optimal CRF profile. All-cause and CVD mortality rates were three to four fold higher in individuals with poor CRF profile, compared to their optimal profile counterparts. Adults with poor CRF profile experienced 3.5-fold (aHR: 3.48 [95% CI: 2.96, 4.10]) and 5-fold (aHR: 4.76 [3.44, 6.60]) higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, respectively, compared to those with optimal profile. These results were consistent across age, sex, and race/ethnicity subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, non-elderly adults with poor CRF profile had a three to five-fold higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality, compared to those with optimal CRF profile. Targeted prevention efforts to achieve optimal cardiovascular risk profile are imperative to reduce the persistent burden of premature all-cause and CVD mortality in the US.

Lipoprotein(a) and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With or Without Baseline Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is associated with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, whether the optimal Lp(a) threshold for risk assessment should differ based on baseline ASCVD status is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the association between Lp(a) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among patients with and without baseline ASCVD. METHODS: We studied a retrospective cohort of patients with Lp(a) measured at 2 medical centers in Boston, Massachusetts, from 2000 to 2019. To assess the association of Lp(a) with incident MACE (nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], nonfatal stroke, coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular mortality), Lp(a) percentile groups were generated with the reference group set at the first to 50th Lp(a) percentiles. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the association of Lp(a) percentile group with MACE. RESULTS: Overall, 16,419 individuals were analyzed with a median follow-up of 11.9 years. Among the 10,181 (62%) patients with baseline ASCVD, individuals in the 71st to 90th percentile group had a 21% increased hazard of MACE (adjusted HR: 1.21; P < 0.001), which was similar to that of individuals in the 91st to 100th group (adjusted HR: 1.26; P < 0.001). Among the 6,238 individuals without established ASCVD, there was a continuously higher hazard of MACE with increasing Lp(a), and individuals in the 91st to 100th Lp(a) percentile group had the highest relative risk with an adjusted HR of 1.93 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a large, contemporary U.S. cohort, elevated Lp(a) is independently associated with long-term MACE among individuals with and without baseline ASCVD. Our results suggest that the threshold for risk assessment may be different in primary vs secondary prevention cohorts.

Left Main Coronary Artery Calcium and Diabetes Confer Very-High-Risk Equivalence in Coronary Artery Calcium >1,000.

BACKGROUND: Although a coronary artery calcium (CAC) of ≥1,000 is a subclinical atherosclerosis threshold to consider combination lipid-lowering therapy, differentiating very high from high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in this patient population is not well-defined. OBJECTIVES: Among persons with a CAC of ≥1,000, the authors sought to identify risk factors equating with very high-risk ASCVD mortality rates. METHODS: The authors studied 2,246 asymptomatic patients with a CAC of ≥1,000 from the CAC Consortium without a prior ASCVD event. Cox proportional hazards regression modelling was performed for ASCVD mortality during a median follow-up of 11.3 years. Crude ASCVD mortality rates were compared with those reported for secondary prevention trial patients classified as very high risk, defined by ≥2 major ASCVD events or 1 major event and ≥2 high-risk conditions (1.4 per 100 person-years). RESULTS: The mean age was 66.6 years, 14% were female, and 10% were non-White. The median CAC score was 1,592 and 6% had severe left main (LM) CAC (vessel-specific CAC ≥300). Diabetes (HR: 2.04 [95% CI: 1.47-2.83]) and severe LM CAC (HR: 2.32 [95% CI: 1.51-3.55]) were associated with ASCVD mortality. The ASCVD mortality per 100 person-years for all patients was 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7-0.9), although higher rates were observed for diabetes (1.4 [95% CI: 0.8-1.9]), severe LM CAC (1.3 [95% CI: 0.6-2.0]), and both diabetes and severe LM CAC (7.1 [95% CI: 3.4-10.8]). CONCLUSIONS: Among asymptomatic patients with a CAC of ≥1,000 without a prior index event, diabetes, and severe LM CAC define very high risk ASCVD, identifying individuals who may benefit from more intensive prevention therapies across several domains, including low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol lowering.

Coronary artery calcium as a marker of healthy and unhealthy aging in adults aged 75 and older: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is validated for risk prediction among middle-aged adults, but there is limited research exploring implications of CAC among older adults. We used data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study to evaluate the association of CAC with domains of healthy and unhealthy aging in adults aged ≥75 years. METHODS: We included 2,290 participants aged ≥75 years free of known coronary heart disease who underwent CAC scoring at study visit 7. We examined the cross-sectional association of CAC = 0, 1-999 (reference), and ≥1000 with seven domains of aging: cognitive function, hearing, ankle-brachial index (ABI), pulse-wave velocity (PWV), forced vital capacity (FVC), physical functioning, and grip strength. RESULTS: The mean age was 80.5 ± 4.3 years, 38.6% male, and 77.7% White. 10.3% had CAC = 0 and 19.2% had CAC≥1000. Individuals with CAC = 0 had the lowest while those with CAC≥1000 had the highest proportion with dementia (2% vs 8%), hearing impairment (46% vs 67%), low ABI (3% vs 18%), high PWV (27% vs 41%), reduced FVC (34% vs 42%), impaired grip strength (66% vs 74%), and mean composite abnormal aging score (2.6 vs 3.7). Participants with CAC = 0 were less likely to have abnormal ABI (aOR:0.15, 95%CI:0.07-0.34), high PWV (aOR:0.57, 95%CI:0.41-0.80), and reduced FVC (aOR:0.69, 95%CI:0.50-0.96). Conversely, participants with CAC≥1000 were more likely to have low ABI (aOR:1.74, 95%CI:1.27-2.39), high PWV (aOR:1.52, 95%CI:1.15-2.00), impaired physical functioning (aOR:1.35, 95%CI:1.05-1.73), and impaired grip strength (aOR:1.46, 95%CI:1.08-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight CAC as a simple measure broadly associated with biological aging, with clinical and research implications for estimating the physical and physiological aging trajectory of older individuals.

Large-Scale Proteomics Identifies Novel Biomarkers and Circulating Risk Factors for Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding risk factors for aortic stenosis (AS). The plasma proteome is a promising phenotype for discovery of novel biomarkers and potentially causative mechanisms. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to discover novel biomarkers with potentially causal associations with AS. METHODS: We measured 4,877 plasma proteins (SomaScan aptamer-affinity assay) among ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants in mid-life (visit 3 [V3]; n = 11,430; age 60 ± 6 years) and in late-life (V5; n = 4,899; age 76 ± 5 years). We identified proteins cross-sectionally associated with aortic valve (AV) peak velocity (AVmax) and dimensionless index by echocardiography at V5 and with incident AV-related hospitalization after V3 with the use of multivariable linear and Cox proportional hazard regression. We assessed associations of candidate proteins with changes in AVmax over 6 years and with AV calcification with the use of cardiac computed tomography, replicated analysis in an independent sample, performed Mendelian randomization, and evaluated gene expression in explanted human AV tissue. RESULTS: Fifty-two proteins cross-sectionally were associated with AVmax and dimensionless index at V5 and with risk of incident AV-related hospitalization after V3. Among 3,413 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, 6 of those proteins were significantly associated with adjudicated moderate or severe AS, including matrix metalloproteinase 12 (MMP12), complement C1q tumor necrosis factor-related protein 1 (C1QTNF1), and growth differentiation factor-15. MMP12 was also associated with greater increase in AVmax over 6 years, greater degree of AV calcification, and greater expression in calcific compared with normal or fibrotic AV tissue. C1QTNF1 had consistent potential causal effects on both AS and AVmax according to Mendelian randomization analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings identify MMP12 as a potential novel circulating biomarker of AS risk and C1QTNF1 as a new putative target to prevent AS progression.

Universal Risk Prediction for Individuals With and Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines recommend distinct risk classification systems for primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention. However, both systems rely on similar predictors (eg, age and diabetes), indicating the possibility of a universal risk prediction approach for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). OBJECTIVES: The authors examined the performance of predictors in persons with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and developed and validated a universal risk prediction model. METHODS: Among 9,138 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) participants with (n = 609) and without (n = 8,529) ASCVD at baseline (1996-1998), we examined established predictors in the risk classification systems and other predictors, such as body mass index and cardiac biomarkers (troponin and natriuretic peptide), using Cox models with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We also evaluated model performance. RESULTS: Over a follow-up of approximately 20 years, there were 3,209 MACEs (2,797 for no prior ASCVD). Most predictors showed similar associations with MACE regardless of baseline ASCVD status. A universal risk prediction model with the predictors (eg, established predictors, cardiac biomarkers) identified by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and bootstrapping showed good discrimination for both groups (c-statistics of 0.747 and 0.691, respectively), and risk classification and showed excellent calibration, irrespective of ASCVD status. This universal prediction approach identified individuals without ASCVD who had a higher risk than some individuals with ASCVD and was validated externally in 5,322 participants in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). CONCLUSIONS: A universal risk prediction approach performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach could facilitate the transition from primary to secondary prevention by streamlining risk classification and discussion between clinicians and patients.

Association of Segment-Specific Pulse Wave Velocity With Vascular Calcification: The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study.

BACKGROUND: Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a noninvasive measure of arterial stiffness and predictor of cardiovascular disease. However, the association between PWV and vascular calcification across different vascular beds has not been fully investigated. This study aimed to quantify the association between PWV and multiterritory calcification and to explore whether PWV can identify individuals with vascular calcification beyond traditional risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 1351 older adults (mean age, 79.2 years [SD, 4.1]) from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study, we measured segment-specific PWVs: heart-carotid, heart-femoral, carotid-femoral, heart-ankle, brachial-ankle, and femoral-ankle. Dependent variables were high calcium score (≥75th percentile of Agatston score) across different vascular beds: coronary arteries, aortic valve ring, aortic valve, mitral valve, ascending aorta, and descending aorta. Quartiles of carotid-femoral, heart-femoral, heart-ankle, and brachial-ankle PWV were significantly associated with coronary artery calcium (eg, adjusted odds ratio [OR] for the highest versus lowest quartile of carotid-femoral PWV, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.24-2.74]). Overall, PWVs were most strongly associated with descending aorta calcification, with significant results for carotid-femoral, heart-femoral, heart-ankle, and brachial-ankle PWV (eg, adjusted OR for the highest versus lowest quartile of carotid-femoral PWV, 3.99 [95% CI, 2.61-6.17]). In contrast, femoral-ankle PWV was inversely associated with descending aorta calcification. Some PWVs improved the discrimination of coronary artery calcium and descending aorta calcification beyond traditional risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The associations of PWV with vascular calcification varied substantially across segments, with descending aorta calcification most closely linked to PWVs. Our study suggests that some PWVs, especially carotid-femoral PWV, are helpful to identify individuals with coronary artery calcium and descending aorta calcification.

Atherothrombotic and thrombolytic biomarkers in incident stroke and atrial fibrillation-related stroke: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although several biomarkers have been studied in thromboembolic stroke, measuring the balance between thrombus formation and thrombolysis and data on its role in predicting stroke and atrial fibrillation (AF)-related stroke is limited. We sought to assess atherothrombotic biomarkers grouped into composite factors that reflect thrombotic and thrombolytic potential, and the balance between these factors as it relates to incident stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and stroke/TIA in AF. METHODS: A Thrombotic Factor, derived from fibrinogen, plasmin-antiplasmin complex, factor VIII, D-dimer, and lipoprotein(a); and a Thrombolytic Factor, derived from plasminogen and oxidized phospholipids on plasminogen, were evaluated at baseline in 5,764 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants. We evaluated the association between these two factors representative of thrombotic and thrombolytic potential and incident stroke/TIA (n = 402), and AF-related stroke/TIA (n = 82) over a median of 13.9 and 3.7 years, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for medication use, cardiovascular risk factors and CHA2DS2-VASc score were utilized. Harrell's C-index was estimated to evaluate model performance. RESULTS: In models including both factors, Thrombotic Factor was positively while Thrombolytic Factor was inversely associated with incident stroke/TIA and AF-related stroke/TIA. Incorporating these factors along with the CHA2DS2-VASc in adjusted models resulted in a small improvement in risk prediction of incident stroke/TIA and AF-related stroke/TIA compared to models without the factors (C-index from 0.697 to 0.704, and from 0.657 to 0.675, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Composite biomarker factors, representative of the balance between thrombotic and thrombolytic propensity, provided an improvement in predicting stroke/TIA beyond CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Prevalence of Aortic Valve Calcium and the Long-Term Risk of Incident Severe Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a principal mechanism underlying aortic stenosis (AS). OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine the prevalence of AVC and its association with the long-term risk for severe AS. METHODS: Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography was performed among 6,814 participants free of known cardiovascular disease at MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) visit 1. AVC was quantified using the Agatston method, and normative age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific AVC percentiles were derived. The adjudication of severe AS was performed via chart review of all hospital visits and supplemented with visit 6 echocardiographic data. The association between AVC and long-term incident severe AS was evaluated using multivariable Cox HRs. RESULTS: AVC was present in 913 participants (13.4%). The probability of AVC >0 and AVC scores increased with age and were generally highest among men and White participants. In general, the probability of AVC >0 among women was equivalent to men of the same race/ethnicity who were approximately 10 years younger. Incident adjudicated severe AS occurred in 84 participants over a median follow-up of 16.7 years. Higher AVC scores were exponentially associated with the absolute risk and relative risk of severe AS with adjusted HRs of 12.9 (95% CI: 5.6-29.7), 76.4 (95% CI: 34.3-170.2), and 380.9 (95% CI: 169.7-855.0) for AVC groups 1 to 99, 100 to 299, and ≥300 compared with AVC = 0. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of AVC >0 varied significantly by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The risk of severe AS was exponentially higher with higher AVC scores, whereas AVC = 0 was associated with an extremely low long-term risk of severe AS. The measurement of AVC provides clinically relevant information to assess an individual's long-term risk for severe AS.

Social disadvantage, coronary artery calcium, and their interplay in the prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Social determinants of health (SDOH) are key for the identification of populations at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, whether at the individual level SDOH improve current ASCVD risk prediction paradigms beyond traditional risk factors and the coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, is unknown. We evaluated the interplay between CAC and SDOH in ASCVD risk prediction. METHODS: MESA is a prospective study of US adults free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. We used an SDOH index inclusive of 14 determinants from 5 domains. The index ranged 0-1 and was divided into quartiles, with higher ones representing worse SDOH. Cox regression was used to evaluate the adjusted associations between CAC, SDOH, their interplay, and ASCVD events. The C-statistic was computed to assess improvement in risk discrimination for prediction of ASCVD events. RESULTS: We included 6479 MESA participants (50% with CAC = 0, 24% CAC>100). ASCVD incidence increased with increasing CAC scores across SDOH quartiles. The lowest incidence was noted in those with CAC = 0 and favourable SDOH (2/1000 person-years) and highest in those with CAC>100 and most unfavourable SDOH (20.6/1000 person-years). While CAC was strongly associated with ASCVD across SDOH quartiles, SDOH was weakly associated with ASCVD across CAC strata. CAC improved the discriminatory ability of all prediction models beyond traditional risk factors, the improvement in C-statistic ranging +0.02 - +0.05. Improvements with SDOH were smaller, and were none on top of CAC. CONCLUSIONS: CAC improves ASCVD risk stratification across the spectrum of social vulnerability, while SDOH fail to improve risk prediction beyond traditional RFs and CAC.

Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations.

BACKGROUND: Multivariable equations are recommended by primary prevention guidelines to assess absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current equations have several limitations. Therefore, we developed and validated the American Heart Association Predicting Risk of CVD EVENTs (PREVENT) equations among US adults 30 to 79 years of age without known CVD. METHODS: The derivation sample included individual-level participant data from 25 data sets (N=3 281 919) between 1992 and 2017. The primary outcome was CVD (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure). Predictors included traditional risk factors (smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, antihypertensive or statin use, and diabetes) and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Models were sex-specific, race-free, developed on the age scale, and adjusted for competing risk of non-CVD death. Analyses were conducted in each data set and meta-analyzed. Discrimination was assessed using the Harrell C-statistic. Calibration was calculated as the slope of the observed versus predicted risk by decile. Additional equations to predict each CVD subtype (atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure) and include optional predictors (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and hemoglobin A1c), and social deprivation index were also developed. External validation was performed in 3 330 085 participants from 21 additional data sets. RESULTS: Among 6 612 004 adults included, mean±SD age was 53±12 years, and 56% were women. Over a mean±SD follow-up of 4.8±3.1 years, there were 211 515 incident total CVD events. The median C-statistics in external validation for CVD were 0.794 (interquartile interval, 0.763-0.809) in female and 0.757 (0.727-0.778) in male participants. The calibration slopes were 1.03 (interquartile interval, 0.81-1.16) and 0.94 (0.81-1.13) among female and male participants, respectively. Similar estimates for discrimination and calibration were observed for atherosclerotic CVD- and heart failure-specific models. The improvement in discrimination was small but statistically significant when urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, hemoglobin A1c, and social deprivation index were added together to the base model to total CVD (ΔC-statistic [interquartile interval] 0.004 [0.004-0.005] and 0.005 [0.004-0.007] among female and male participants, respectively). Calibration improved significantly when the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was added to the base model among those with marked albuminuria (>300 mg/g; 1.05 [0.84-1.20] versus 1.39 [1.14-1.65]; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: PREVENT equations accurately and precisely predicted risk for incident CVD and CVD subtypes in a large, diverse, and contemporary sample of US adults by using routinely available clinical variables.

LP(a): Structure, Genetics, Associated Cardiovascular Risk, and Emerging Therapeutics.

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a molecule bound to apolipoprotein(a) with some similarity to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), which has been found to be a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Lp(a) appears to induce inflammation, atherogenesis, and thrombosis. Approximately 20% of the world's population has increased Lp(a) levels, determined predominantly by genetics. Current clinical practices for the management of dyslipidemia are ineffective in lowering Lp(a) levels. Evolving RNA-based therapeutics, such as the antisense oligonucleotide pelacarsen and small interfering RNA olpasiran, have shown promising results in reducing Lp(a) levels. Phase III pivotal cardiovascular outcome trials [Lp(a)HORIZON and OCEAN(a)] are ongoing to evaluate their efficacy in secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events in patients with elevated Lp(a). The future of cardiovascular residual risk reduction may transition to a personalized approach where further lowering of either LDL-C, triglycerides, or Lp(a) is selected after high-intensity statin therapy based on the individual risk profile and preferences of each patient.

Unfavorable social determinants of health and mortality risk by cardiovascular disease status: Findings from a National Study of United States Adults.

BACKGROUND: The association between cumulative burden of unfavorable social determinants of health (SDoH) and all-cause mortality has not been assessed by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) status on a population level in the United States. METHODS: We assessed the association between cumulative social disadvantage and all-cause mortality by ASCVD status in the National Health Interview Survey, linked to the National Death Index. RESULTS: In models adjusted for established clinical risk factors, individuals experiencing the highest level of social disadvantage (SDoH-Q4) had over 1.5 (aHR = 1.55; 95%CI = 1.22, 1.96) and 2-fold (aHR = 2.21; 95% CI = 1.91, 2.56) fold increased risk of mortality relative to those with the most favorable social profile (SDoH-Q1), respectively for adults with and without ASCVD; those experiencing co-occurring ASCVD and high social disadvantage had up to four-fold higher risk of mortality (aHR = 3.81; 95%CI = 3.36, 4.32). CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the importance of a healthcare model that prioritizes efforts to identify and address key social and environmental barriers to health and wellbeing, particularly in individuals experiencing the double jeopardy of clinical and social risk.